Inflation in 2018: Continues to Heat Up

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Research fellow of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inflation in Russia stood at 4.3% at 2018 year end, posting an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the central bank’s target inflation rate and of 0.1 percentage points over its preliminary forecast. Early 2019 saw prices continue to heat up: consumer prices and services rose 0.7% in the first two weeks of January (versus 0.3% in January 2018). Given the recent trends, the 2019 year-end inflation is expected to vary within a range of 5.0% to 5.5%, but it is not until 2020 that inflation is expected to decline back to the 4% target.

Key words: inflation, monetary policy, key rate, outflow of capital, Bank of Russia.