Life Expectancy: Gender Differentiation

Ramilya R. Khasanova – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

According to preliminary data released by Rosstat, in 2018 life expectancy for Russian population increased by 0.2 year and came to 72.84 years. One of the acute demographic problems in Russia is high differentiation of life expectancy by gender which is due to low life expectancy for males. In 2018, the difference between male and female life expectancy constituted 10.21 years, which is one of the highest indicators among European countries.

Key words: life expectancy, death causes, male mortality, female mortality, death prevention.

Survey of Current Business (February-May 2019)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In February 2019, the diffusion index of output recovered after the January «collapse» and amounted to 45 points, while the diffusion index of wages dropped to 38 points, which is the minimum value for the past three years.

The share of financially well-to-do enterprises decreased noticeably (by 20 percentage points) and amounted to 68%, although only 2 months ago this indicator reached its historic high value of 94%.

Key words: industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, risk of bankruptcy, economic policy, crisis duration.

The Ecology National Project: Modest Steps to Implementation

Alexandra M. Avdonina – Senior Researcher, Center for Economic Modeling of Power Engineering and Ecology, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, PhD (Biology) (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The first steps to implement the Ecology national project lack purpose-oriented and system-based parameters. As seen from the implementation steps made late in 2018 and early in 2019, permanent monitoring and adjustments by the key federal projects are crucially required.

Key words: National project, federal project, ecology, environmental quality, municipal solid waste.

The Russian Industry: Estimation of Production Capacities

Sergey V. Tsukhlo – Head of Business Surveys Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

According to the data of 2018–2019, the Russian industry is fairly equipped with production capacities. Over 90% of manufacturers have the required production capacities (or in some cases even excessive ones in terms of the expected demand). The shortage is experienced by maximum 10% of industrial enterprises.

Key words: industry, production capacities, demand forecast, output forecast, business surveys, investment preferences.

Improving the Organization of Entrepreneurship in Russia in Conditions of Digital Economy

Anastasia I. Smetanina – graduate postgraduate, candidate for the degree of Economics, Volgograd State Technical University (Volgograd, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article is devoted to substantiating the need for and developing recommendations for improving the organization of entrepreneurship in Russia in the digital economy. A promising model for organizing entrepreneurship in the digital economy is being developed. It relies on the existing infrastructure in modern Russia and opens up prospects for its improvement in order to stimulate the future development of domestic entrepreneurship.

Key words: organization of entrepreneurship, modernization, digital economy, modern Russia.

The Output Dynamics in Q1 2019: Growth in Manufacturing Industries

Andrey S. Kaukin – Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectoral Markets, Institute of Industry and Markets Infrastructures, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Head of Sectoral Markets and Infrastructure Department of the Gaidar Institute, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Late in 2018, the manufacturing sector of the Russian economy saw stagnation; industries which received state support or took advantage of the favorable global market situation were on the rise. As seen from the data of the beginning of 2019, most manufacturing industries have growth. For some exceptions (for example, the food industry, the chemical industry and the iron and steel industry), this situation does not quite agree with previous trends, dynamics of fundamental factors, the recession in the wholesale and retail trade and stagnation in the cargo turnover and the building industry.

Key words: industrial production, manufacturing, growth rates, production indices, decomposing, trend component, tax regulation.

The Effect of the Dividend Factor on Investment Attractiveness of Russian Equities

Alexander E. Abramov – Head of Department for Analysis of Institutions and Financial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander D. Radygin – Chairman of Academic Board, Head of Center for Institutional Development, Ownership and Corporate Governance of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Institute for Applied Economic Studies, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria Ig. Chernova – Research fellow of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In the past few years, numerous Russian companies have increased dividend payments to underpin their equities’ attractiveness for investors. In this context, a question arises: to what extent such strategies are justified for investors and do they actually permit to receive income higher than the market one? The research has established that in 2012–2018 investments in equities with a high dividend yield as per the general income criterion (with dividends accounted for) made it possible to outperform both a broad market portfolio and the level of yield on equities with low dividends. However, in a longer period (2005–2018) the investments in a broad market portfolio and equities without dividends turned out to be more profitable and this factor puts in question the application of the dividend growth strategy for long-term prospects.

Key words: dividends, factor investing, dividend yield, equity indices, investment strategies.

The Foreign Trade Turnover of Services in 2018: Growth in Exports

Alexander Yu. Knobel – Head of Foreign Trade Department of the Gaidar Institute; Director of Center for Foreign Trade Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Director of the Institute of International Economics and Finance, Russian Foreign Trade Academy of the Ministry for the Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Alexander S. Firanchuk – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2018, Russian exports of services increased by 12.4%. This dynamic growth is of a recovery nature. However, it may slow down after it has attained the pre-crisis volumes seen in 2013. In 2018, imports of services rose by 6.6%, having stopped growing in Q4 because of the dynamics of the rouble’s exchange rate.

Key words: foreign trade turnover, imports of services, exports of services, pattern of foreign trade turnover of services.

Russia’s Financial Sector: How to Build a Forecast

Alexey L. Vedev – Head of Center of Structural Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Leading Researcher of the Gaidar Institute, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The issue of long-term forecasting for the Russian financial sector has come to the fore after the economy and the financial system have suffered substantial shocks in recent years. It is extremely important for economic agents to understand what the Russian financial system would be on the horizon. The effect of non-economic (“geopolitics”) and technology (digital technologies) factors on the financial sector must be factored in when making forecast scenarios.

Key words: financial sector, scenarios for financial sector development, GDP, bank assets, banking passives, bank loans, bank deposits, exchange rate, debt instruments.

Russia’s Balance of Payments in Q1 2019: Rouble Has Potential for Appreciation

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Anastasia A. Lavrishcheva – Doktorand of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Russia’s positive balance of trade increased in Q1 2019, compared to the previous years’ same period, on the back of decline in imports (a major contributor to the increase) induced by rouble depreciation. BoP data show that residents invested more in foreign assets as well as the OFZ bond market became more appealing to non-residents. The Russian rouble has potential for further strengthening, although its depreciation cannot be ruled out if new external shocks occur.

Key words: balance of payments, current account, trade surplus, capital outflow, capital inflow and exchange rate, Bank of Russia.

State Program of Integrated Development of Rural Territories: Project Analysis

Vasily Ya. Uzun – Main Researcher of the Center Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Main Researcher of the Gaidar Institute, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Agriculture Ministry of Russia has developed a draft of the State program of integrated development of rural territories (SP IDRT) for 2020–2025. Fundamental difference of the new program from the current Federal Target Program “Sustainable development of rural areas for 2014–2017 and the period up to 2020” is in upsurge of required budget allocations and drastic change in the ways of their distribution.

Key words: agriculture, State Program for overall development of rural areas, Ministry of Agriculture of Russia.