Rate of Inflation: The Results of 2019

Alexandra V. Bozhechkova – Head of Monetary Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Сandidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute; Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In 2019, a considerable slowdown of the rate of inflation resulted in substantial cuts in the key interest rate. Within that year, the Central Bank of Russia reduced it five times (from 7.75% to 6.25% per annum) to the level it perceived neutral. By our estimates, early in 2020 the inflation rate will be falling and may decline below 2% year on year, so the Central Bank of Russia is likely to keep easing the monetary policy. However, by the end of the year as a result of growth in budget expenditures and recovery of domestic demand the growth rates of the consumer price index (CPI) may return to the level of 3.5%–4%.

Key words: inflation, basic inflation, annual inflation, prices, consumer prices, monetary policy, key interest, rate, target, Bank of Russia.