Regional Budgets in Q1 2023

Alexander N. Deryugin – Acting Head of Department for Budget Policy of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The transfer of taxpayers to a single tax account from January 1, 2023, which is very convenient for them, has created a lot of issues for regional budgets. Thus, the postponement of tax payments, more rapid mutual repayment of obligations to pay and reimburse overpaid taxes, as well as the reduction of the period of refunds for property and social deductions have led to a decrease in the regional budgets’ tax revenues growth rate, making them more volatile and less predictable, and the need for additional borrowing.

Key words: regions’ budgets, revenues of regional budgets, expenditures of regional budgets, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, regional debt.

JEL-codes: H61, H62, H63, H71, H72, H74, H77.

Reducing the Damper Will Reduce Super Profits of Russian Refineries, but Will Not Make Them Unprofitable

Andrey S. Kaukin – Acting Head of the Scientific Direction «Real sector» of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectorial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The RF Ministry of Finance is considering halving the payments to oil refining companies under the damping mechanism from September 2023 for a period of one year. The publication assesses the effects of the adjustment on the economics of the refining industry, in particular, the possibility to provide the domestic market with break-even production of petroleum products.

Key words: oil refining sector, petroleum products, damper mechanism.

JEL-codes: H24, L71, Q38, Q41.

Significance and Tasks of Analytical Substantiation of the Choice of Systems of Documentary Support for the Management of Consolidated Groups of Organizations

Dmitry A. Gusev – Postgraduate Student of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The subject of the research relates to the processes of documentary support for the management of groups of organizations and companies at the present stage of economic development. The purpose of the article is to analyze the meaning and task of analytical substantiation of the choice of documentation support systems for managing consolidated groups of organizations. The tasks of the system of documentary support for the management of organizations within the framework of corporate formations are singled out. It has been established that the introduction of electronic document management systems for documentary management of organizations within corporate formations should be accompanied by an integrated approach as part of the transformation of the management processes of consolidated groups of organizations in order to prevent inconsistencies and contradictions between different levels of management. That is why the introduction of electronic document management systems for documentary support for the management of organizations is effective as part of servicing the documentary activities of a consolidated group of organizations.

It is shown that the use of documentary support systems for the management of consolidated groups of organizations makes it possible to achieve a high level of management processes, ensures efficiency and high coordination of the performance of managerial functions for servicing the documentary activities of a consolidated group of organizations.

Key words: documentation support systems, management, consolidated groups of organizations, tasks, substantiation, choice.

JEL-codes: M41.

Modeling of Income Inequality of the Population with Spatial Dependence in Russia

Tatiana Yu. Ivakhnenko – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The paper tested the existence of spatial dependence in the model of income inequality for 77 regions of the Russian Federation in the period 2004–2020. For this purpose, cross-section and panel models were evaluated with the inclusion of spatial lags in the dependent variable (SAR), as well as errors (SEM) of the income inequality model. The results of the estimation of both cross-section and panel models with region fixed effects indicate the existence of a positive spatial correlation both in the level and in the shocks of income inequality.

The main conclusion is that the level of income inequality in a given region positively depends on the level and shocks of income inequality in neighboring regions. Interregional migration, transfers, and trade are considered as possible channels of this influence.

Key words: Gini index, income inequality, spatial models, Russia’s regions.

JEL-codes: C23, D31, O15.

Predicting Changes in Household Consumption Using Neural Networks

Anastasia D. Petaykina – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

The article is devoted to research of influence of income changes on consumption of the households in Russia – in particular, the task is to develop and train a neural network capable of forecasting changes in consumption based on data on income changes, individual characteristics of households, as well as the factor of the existence of liquidity constraints. The relevance of the use of a neural network is explained by the assumption of a non-linear relationship between consumption and factors that can explain its change. The study is conducted using data broken down by individual households available in the RLMS HSE database for the period from 2006 to 2019. According to the results of the study, it was found that the use of neural networks improves the predictive properties of the model compared to the use of linear regression, which is evidence in favor of the existence of non-linear relationships between the indicators.

The article was prepared within the framework of the research work of the state assignment of RANEPA.

Key words: households’ consumption, neural networks, multilayer perceptron, RLMS.

JEL-codes: C23, C45, C53, E21.

Estimation of the Sensitivity of the EAEU Members to External Shocks Using the GVAR Model

Andrey V. Zubarev – Head of the Laboratory of Applied Macroeconomic Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Maria A. Kirillova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Small open economies, such as the EAEU economies, are affected by various external local (occurring in partner countries) and global shocks. We built an econometric global vector autoregression model (GVAR), including a model for Russia, EAEU member states and 40 other major economies.

All EAEU countries demonstrate a decrease in output under a negative output shock in China, but neither Russia nor Kazakhstan reduces oil production in response to it. In response to a similar EAEU output shock, all countries except Kazakhstan cut output, and the strongest effect is observed in Armenia, while Russia significantly but extremely weakly increases oil production. When oil production in the Persian Gulf countries (and some others) falls and oil prices rise following it, output growth is observed not only in oil-exporting Kazakhstan and Russia, but also in the rest of the EAEU member countries. When global oil prices fall, all EAEU countries react by reducing output and the strongest such effect is observed in Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia.

The article was prepared within the framework of the research work of the state assignment of RANEPA.

Key words: global vector autoregression, GVAR, GDP, oil prices, oil production, EAEU, impulse response function.

JEL-codes: C32, E17, F47.

Survey of Current Business (April-July 2023)

Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Inessa A. Bachirova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In April 2023, the diffusion index of employment reached 59%, the highest value in the REB surveys since December 1991. A similar record happened with the diffusion index of three-month expectations of employment, but only with a value of 69%, which is 9 points higher than the previous maximum. The diffusion index of inventories added 12 percentage points over the month and amounted to 54% – a maximum for 2.5 years. The diffusion index of wages, on the contrary, decreased by 12 points and amounted to 52% – a minimum for 1.5 years. The level of inventories of the finished goods has risen to 99% (from the normal monthly level, taken as 100). It hasn’t been this high since March 2015.

Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.

JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.

Federal Budget Execution for January-May 2023

Julia E. Kazakova – Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Junior Researcher of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Ilya А. Sokolov – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Leading Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Tatyana V. Tischenko – Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

At the end of the first five months of 2023 federal budget revenues in nominal terms were Rb 2.2 trillion lower than a year earlier. Oil and gas revenues evidenced the main reason for such a visible reduction in budget revenues, which did not even reach the level of the same period in 2021. Stable dynamics of revenues to the budget is still ensured only by VAT, whose revenues grew by Rb 0.6 trillion in current prices. Federal budget expenditures during the period under review grew by Rb 2.7 trillion in nominal terms, which can partially be explained by a higher level of cash execution (45% of the annual values in 2023 vs 33–36% in the previous two years). As a result of the revenues and expenditures variety of trends the budget balance for the first 5 months of this year amounted to Rb 3.4 trillion vs surplus of Rb 0.3 trillion and 1.5 trillion for the same periods of 2021 and 2022.

Key words: federal budget, revenue, oil and gas revenues, non-oil and gas revenues, expenditure, taxes.

JEL-codes: H11, H50, H62, H63.