Social Situation Monitoring: Growth of Positive Sentiments Regarding Employment and Wages
Victor Yu. Lyashok – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
According to the Monitoring of the social status and behavior of the population (survey of June 2022), the proportion of employed and unemployed respondents has not changed compared to March of this year. A large part of the population continues to work in the same mode and with the same wages, only 4% faced a deterioration of the situation in the labor market. The respondents’ assessments of the situation in the labor market show a slight increase in positive sentiments.
Key words: Monitoring of social situation, labor market, unemployment rate, employment, wages, sanctions.
JEL-codes: J21, J30, J60.
Survey of Current Business (June-September 2022)
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In June 2022, the diffusion index of prices for manufactured products decreased even more (this month by 11 percentage points) and reached the lowest value in 2 years – 68%. Many other diffusion indices also look quite optimistic: the index of wages reached 62%, output – 58%, employment – 57%, orders – 55%. As for the changes expected in three months, they turned out to be quite optimistic as well – the diffusion indices of financial condition, order-books, wages reached local highs, and the diffusion indices of the expected in three months prices for purchased and manufactured products continued to decline.
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.
Impact of Higher Education Systems on Graduates’ Interregional Employment Mobility
Kseniia A. Borzykh – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Postgraduate Student of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article analyzes the impact of the quality of universities and other regional characteristics on the inter-regional geography of employment of university graduates in 2015–2020. The gravity model of the value of flows is supplemented by the model of the propensity of university graduates to migrate from the region of education. It was determined that the quality of the regional system of education and educational institutions, as well as the interaction of universities with local labor markets reduce the outflow of university graduates to other regions, and therefore they can become tools to curb the outflow of qualified personnel from regions and stimulate the development of regional economies.
The article was prepared as part of the research work of the state assignment of the RANEPA.
Key words: university graduates, migration flows, higher education institutions’ quality, Russian regions.
JEL-codes: R23, O15, I25.
Industrial Production Dynamics in Q2 2022
Andrey S. Kaukin – Acting Head of the Scientific Direction «Real sector» of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectorial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In Q2 2022, the industrial production volume decreased. Slow growth was observed only in the mining industry on the back of the extraction of minerals (except for fuel and energy) and industries related to the provision of services in the extractive sector. Manufacturing industries began to feel the effects of sanctions imposed on Russia due to the events in Ukraine, which manifested itself in a decline in production owing to a drop in exports, a lack of necessary components and materials.
Key words: industrial sector, sectors of economy, mining industry, manufacturing, Rosstat, sanctions.
JEL-codes: L16, L6, L7, L8, L9.
Tax Policy under Sanctions
Sergey G. Sinelnikov-Murylev – Rector of the Russian Foreign Trade Academy at the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Doctor of Sciences in Economics, Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. ; This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Nikolay S. Milogolov – Head of the Laboratory for Tax Policy Research of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Sergey G. Belev – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In the current conditions there is a need to ensure that the domestic tax policy corresponds with the current external conditions. Given that today’s Russian tax system is developed and its main principles are set, it is reasonable to make only minor adjustments to it to support certain industries and sectors of the economy. Development of Russian tax system shall be based on principles of “good” tax system. Despite of technological possibilities such principles as neutrality (no distortion of competition), certainty and simplicity of law and fiscal efficiency (minimization of administration and compliance costs) shall be considered.
Key words: tax system, corporate income tax, value added tax, consolidated group of taxpayers, investment tax agreements, fiscal devaluation.
JEL-codes: E62, H21.
World Oil Market in Q2 2022
Andrey S. Kaukin – Acting Head of the Scientific Direction «Real sector» of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectorial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The main uncertainties for the world oil market in H2 2022 are as follows: sanctions on Russian exports of oil and oil products, their scale and duration; formal completion of the OPEC+ deal in September 2022 and chances and terms of its extension.
The research was conducted as part of the RANEPA state assignment «Transformation potential and risks of development of segments of the Russian energy sector in the context of the gradual displacement of fossil fuels by renewable energy sources».
Key words: oil, global oil market, Russian oil market, oil production, oil price, OPEC+, sanctions.
JEL-сodes: L71, E3, Q3.
Economic Situation in the Industry in H1 2022
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Alexandra Ye. Batyaeva – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The article presents a set of different non-traditional economic indicators obtained in the surveys, which were conducted by the «Russian Economic Barometer» among Russian industrial enterprises in the first half of 2021. A wide range of considered indicators provides a great possibility to make a more comprehensive assessment of the state of affairs in Russian industry.
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, production and investments restrictive factors, suppliers, wholesale buyers, recruitments and redundancies, risk of bankruptcy, competitiveness, sources of investments, relations with banks, production and inflation, demand prognoses.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, G38, J23, P23.
Global Economic Development: Worsening Forecasts
Urmat K. Dzhunkeev – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Yury N. Perevyshin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Maria I. Chembulatova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In July, the IMF, the European Commission, and the Asian Development Bank updated their previous world economic development forecasts. In the updated IMF forecast, the global GDP growth rate for 2022 is reduced to 3.2% because of a slowdown in the movement of that indicator in the largest G20 economies. At the same time, for a number of G20 countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, and Russia) the projections for 2022 have been improved due to rising prices for energy and some metals; and in the case of Russia, also due to the effective measures designed to stabilize its financial sector. The forecasts are also deteriorating in view of the monetary policy tightening by the monetary authorities across a considerable majority of G20 countries in response to the acceleration of inflation.
Key words: world economy, growth rates, forecast, monetary policy, IMF, European Commission, Asian Development Bank.
JEL-codes: C53, C54, E52, E58.
