State of Regional Budgets in 2022: May Forecast
Dmitrii Yu. Zemlianskii – Director of Centre of Spatial Analysis and Regional Diagnostics of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration; Researcher of the Faculty of Geography of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Ph.D. of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Vladimir V. Klimanov – Director of Centre for Regional Policy of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In the context of current uncertainty, one of the possible options for short-term forecasting of the state of consolidated budgets of Russian regions is consensus forecasts based on the opinions of leading experts in the field. Measures taken by the RF Government to stabilize the financial situation have significantly improved experts’ expectations concerning the state of regional budgets in May 2022 as compared with March, but the overall forecast remains negative.
The expectations on the dynamics of tax and non-tax revenues, the volume of public debt increased, the expectations on the dynamics of expenditures remained at the same level, but the experts gave a more restrained forecast of the growth of inter-budgetary transfers. According to the experts’ forecasts, the most difficult situation will be in the regions of foreign business concentration, including the regions of automotive and metallurgy, in the metropolitan agglomerations.
Key words: regional budgets, forecast, expert survey.
JEL-codes: H68, H77, R58.
Industrial Production Dynamics in Q1 2022
Andrey S. Kaukin – Acting Head of the Scientific Direction «Real sector» of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectorial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In Q1 2022, the extractive sector showed growth due to the continued impact of the factors that emerged in 2021: growth of demand for thermal coal and natural gas from the European and Asian countries; weakening of the effect of restrictions related to the OPEC+ agreement following the increase in quotas on daily oil production in the member countries. The manufacturing sector demonstrated around zero growth rates; growth was mainly observed in the food, textile, chemical and machine-building industries. The sanctions imposed against Russia have not yet affected the dynamics of the industrial sectors; the negative impact is likely to be felt in Q2 2022.
The work was carried out within the framework of the RANEPA state order «Modeling and forecasting wholesale unit power prices in Russia using hybrid machine learning models».
Key words: industrial sector, sectors of economy, mining industry, manufacturing, Rosstat, sanctions.
JEL-codes: L16, L6, L7, L8, L9.
Sociology and Statistics Show no Negative Trends in Labor Migration
Yulia F. Florinskaya – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Geographic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In the context of negative economic development, it is reasonable to expect a reduction in labor migration into Russia. At the same time, there exist some concerns about a possible increase in competition in the labor market between native and foreign workers, and it has been suggested that the government should adopt a targeted policy to replace foreign workers with Russians. So far, an analysis of statistical and sociological data has not revealed any serious changes in the labor migration market in the Russian Federation.
Key words: migration, migrant workers, work permit, patents.
JEL: J11, J61.
Forecasting the Real Estate Price Index in Russia
Natalia S. Nikitina – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
This article is devoted to choosing the best model for short-term forecasting of Russia’s real estate price index. Popular machine learning methods: Ridge and Lasso regressions, Elastic Net regression and methods of working with time series were considered: Naive, Exponential smoothing, ARIMA, OLS. The set of variables includes the values of GDP, inflation, effective exchange rate, interbank lending rates, and oil prices. Machine learning methods – Ridge Regression and Elastic Net regression – show the high quality of forecasting the real estate price index compared to standard ways of working with time series – Naive, Exponential smoothing, ARIMA.
Key words: forecasting, real estate price index, machine learning.
JEL: C32, C53, R30.
Trends in Corporate Education and Training
Elena A. Semionova – Leading Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The purpose of this article is to discuss the main trends of corporate education in Russia and presents the key organizational details of this process. The work is based on the monitoring data of postgraduate professional education conducted by the Center of the Economics for Continuing Education of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of RANEPA in 2021.
The article was prepared in the framework of execution of state order by RANEPA.
Key words: monitoring, postgraduate professional education, corporate education, training departments.
JEL-codes: O15.
Federal Budget Performance for Q1 2022
Sergey G. Belev – Head of Budget Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tatyana V. Tischenko – Senior Researcher of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In the first three months of 2022, federal budget revenues increased by 4.2 p.p. of GDP compared to the same period of the previous year due to oil and gas revenues, reaching 31.2% of the projected annual volume. A moderate increase in federal budget expenditures by 1.5 p.p. of GDP in the first 3months of the current year relative to the 3 months of 2021 and the budget surplus of Rb 1140.5bn were additional factors of budgetary sustainability. Significant management solutions amid sanctions imposed on the country were the early repayment of the foreign debt, as well as the suspension of new borrowing.
Key words: federal budget, revenue, oil and gas revenues, non-oil and gas revenues, expenditure, taxes.
JEL-codes: H11, H50, H62, H63.
Retail Lending in January-April 2022
Sergey A. Zubov – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The changing macroeconomic satiation resulting from the introduction of anti-Russian sanctions had a restraining effect on retail lending. The retail lending segment saw a slowdown in lending activity, primarily with regard to unsecured loans, while mortgages were more resilient thanks to the government preferential lending programs with their attractive interest rates. The government measures helped stabilize the situation on the consumer loan market and translated into partially restored lending volumes. However, in face of inflation and declining real personal income, the risk of an overdue debt growth remains high.
Key words: Russian banking sector, retail lending, past-due debt, Bank of Russia.
JEL-codes: D81, E58, G21.
Short- and Long-Term Effects of Economic Sanctions on Economic Dynamics: The Yugoslav Experience
Daniil A. Sitkevich – Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia).
Restrictive economic measures that the UN Security Council imposed first on the SFRY and then on the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia on September 25, 1991 that partially remained in effect until September 10, 2001, are one of the few examples of foreign trade restrictions comparable to the collective international sanctions imposed by the United States, EU, Great Britain and several other countries against the Russian Federation in February-March 2022. The Yugoslav experience is also valuable because that country’s economy faced difficulties not only during the introduction and operation of sanctions, but also after they were lifted.
Key words: Yugoslavia, Yugoslav experience, economic sanctions.
JEL-codes: E01, E24, F51.
Survey of Current Business (March-June 2022)
Sergey P. Aukutsionek – Head of Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Andrey S. Yegorov – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Inessa A. Bachirova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Tatyana V. Serzhantova – Senior Researcher of the Center for Transition Economy Studies, Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
In March 2022, the diffusion output index reached the highest value (71%) in the entire 30-year history of observations of this indicator. Diffusion indices of wages (65%), orders (61%) and employment (54%) were also very high. At the same time, the volume of orders amounted to 96% of the normal monthly level. Having risen by 8 points within a month, the indicator of the labor utilization rate reached 98%, which turned out to be the highest volume in the entire history of observations. After a sharp failure in February 2022, the indicators of actual and expected equipment purchases returned to their relative norm.
Key words: Russia, industry, industrial enterprises, price level, wages, employment, output, investment, indebtedness to banks, order-book level, stocks of finished products, capacity utilization rate, financial situation, production restrictive factors.
JEL-codes: D22, D24, G31, L23, P23.
IMF and World Bank Downgraded World Economy Growth Forecast for 2022–2023 and Raised Inflation Projection for 2022
Urmat K. Dzhunkeev – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Yury N. Perevyshin – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Pavel V. Trunin – Head of Center for Macroeconomics and Finance of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Director of Center for Central Banks Studies of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Doctor of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Maria I. Chembulatova – Junior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
The imposition of large-scale sanctions against Russia has a negative impact on the entire world economy, contributing to higher inflation and slower economic growth. The decline in GDP growth in most of the G-20 countries was affected, among other things, by the tightening of monetary policy in developed and developing countries. Record high rates of price growth led monetary authorities in the US, Australia, the UK, Canada, South Korea, India and Brazil to raise monetary policy rates between April 1 and May 10, 2022. The U.S. Federal Reserve announced the beginning of a balance sheet reduction from June 1, 2022. The Bank of Russia in April twice reduced its key rate by a total of 6 p.p. from a record level of 20% per annum due to the reduction of risks to financial and price stability in the Russian economy.
Key words: world economy, growth rates, forecast, monetary policy, IMF, World Bank.
JEL-codes: C53, C54, E52, E58.
