Industrial Production Dynamics in Q1 2022

Andrey S. Kaukin – Acting Head of the Scientific Direction «Real sector» of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy; Head of Department for System Analysis of Sectorial Markets of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Candidate of Economic Sciences (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

Eugenia M. Miller – Senior Researcher of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Moscow, Russia). Е-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

In Q1 2022, the extractive sector showed growth due to the continued impact of the factors that emerged in 2021: growth of demand for thermal coal and natural gas from the European and Asian countries; weakening of the effect of restrictions related to the OPEC+ agreement following the increase in quotas on daily oil production in the member countries. The manufacturing sector demonstrated around zero growth rates; growth was mainly observed in the food, textile, chemical and machine-building industries. The sanctions imposed against Russia have not yet affected the dynamics of the industrial sectors; the negative impact is likely to be felt in Q2 2022.

The work was carried out within the framework of the RANEPA state order «Modeling and forecasting wholesale unit power prices in Russia using hybrid machine learning models».

Key words: industrial sector, sectors of economy, mining industry, manufacturing, Rosstat, sanctions.

JEL-codes: L16, L6, L7, L8, L9.